Rice is produced at a global scale, but the statistics depend on what is being measured. USDA’s core production series uses local marketing years and reports production, consumption, and stocks on a milled-rice basis. Recent figures show world production rising from 509,262 thousand metric tons in 2020/21 to a forecast 530,435 thousand metric tons for 2024/25 in the October 2024 estimate. Other measures, including harvested area, yield, exports, and trade, describe different parts of the rice system and should not be treated as interchangeable.
Contents
- Global production scale and trend
- Leading national producers
- Production across other major growers
- Output, consumption, and stocks
- Harvested area and yield
- Near-term production and trade outlook
Global production scale and trend
The USDA local marketing-year series places world milled-rice production above 500 million thousand metric tons throughout the period covered here. The figures below are not all the same type of observation: 2020/21 through 2022/23 are observed values, 2023/24 is an estimate, and the two 2024/25 values are forecasts made in successive months.
| Marketing year or estimate | World milled-rice production | Status |
|---|---|---|
| 2020/21 | 509,262 thousand metric tons | Observed |
| 2021/22 | 513,802 thousand metric tons | Observed |
| 2022/23 | 516,022 thousand metric tons | Observed |
| 2023/24 | 521,517 thousand metric tons | Estimate |
| 2024/25, September 2024 | 527,312 thousand metric tons | Forecast |
| 2024/25, October 2024 | 530,435 thousand metric tons | Forecast |
Source: World Market and Trade: Grain—World Rice Production, Consumption, and Stocks. The table uses USDA local marketing years and a milled basis. The September and October 2024 figures are forecasts, not finalized production totals.
The series shows a measured increase across the observed and estimated years, followed by higher near-term forecasts. Because the 2024/25 values were updated between September and October 2024, they should be read as forecast vintages rather than as two separate production years. The distinction matters when comparing a realized harvest with a preliminary estimate or a later projection.
The USDA also publishes a broader Rice Production Data series with global production and harvested-area data shown for 2016 through 2025/26. That series is a useful reference for a longer time span, while the detailed figures above retain the local-marketing-year and milled-basis definitions of the USDA grain table.
Leading national producers
China and India are the two largest national producers in the supplied USDA series. China produced 148,300 thousand metric tons of milled rice in 2020/21 and had an estimated 144,620 thousand metric tons in 2023/24. India moved in the opposite direction over those comparison points, from observed production of 124,368 thousand metric tons in 2020/21 to an estimated 137,825 thousand metric tons in 2023/24.
| Country | 2020/21 production | 2023/24 production | Measurement status |
|---|---|---|---|
| China | 148,300 thousand metric tons | 144,620 thousand metric tons | Observed, then estimate |
| India | 124,368 thousand metric tons | 137,825 thousand metric tons | Observed, then estimate |
| Bangladesh | 34,600 thousand metric tons | 37,000 thousand metric tons | Observed, then estimate |
| Indonesia | 34,500 thousand metric tons | 33,020 thousand metric tons | Observed, then estimate |
Source: World Market and Trade: Grain—World Rice Production, Consumption, and Stocks. All figures are local marketing-year production on a milled basis.
Bangladesh’s estimated 2023/24 production was 37,000 thousand metric tons, compared with 34,600 thousand metric tons in 2020/21. Indonesia’s estimated 2023/24 production was 33,020 thousand metric tons, compared with 34,500 thousand metric tons in 2020/21. These comparisons describe production levels in the USDA series; they do not by themselves identify the causes of change.
India’s October 2024 forecast for 2024/25 was 142,000 thousand metric tons on a milled basis. This is a forecast for a local marketing year and should not be read as a finalized harvest observation. It also comes from a different forecast point than the June 2025 India outlook discussed later, so the two projections should retain their source dates and labels.
Production across other major growers
The same USDA table records substantial production in Vietnam, Thailand, Pakistan, Brazil, and Cambodia. Vietnam produced 27,381 thousand metric tons in 2020/21 and had an estimated 26,625 thousand metric tons in 2023/24. Thailand increased from observed production of 18,863 thousand metric tons to an estimated 20,000 thousand metric tons over the same comparison.
| Country | 2020/21 | 2023/24 | Status of the two values |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vietnam | 27,381 thousand metric tons | 26,625 thousand metric tons | Observed, then estimate |
| Thailand | 18,863 thousand metric tons | 20,000 thousand metric tons | Observed, then estimate |
| Pakistan | 8,420 thousand metric tons | 9,869 thousand metric tons | Observed, then estimate |
| Brazil | 8,001 thousand metric tons | 7,200 thousand metric tons | Observed, then estimate |
| Cambodia | 6,271 thousand metric tons | 7,174 thousand metric tons | Observed, then estimate |
Source: World Market and Trade: Grain—World Rice Production, Consumption, and Stocks. Values are thousand metric tons, milled basis, for local marketing years.
Pakistan’s estimated 2023/24 production was 9,869 thousand metric tons, up from 8,420 thousand metric tons in 2020/21. Brazil’s estimated 2023/24 output was 7,200 thousand metric tons, below its observed 8,001 thousand metric tons in 2020/21. Cambodia’s estimated 2023/24 production was 7,174 thousand metric tons, compared with 6,271 thousand metric tons in 2020/21.
These countries illustrate why a global total should not be represented by one country’s experience. The period includes increases for Thailand, Pakistan, and Cambodia alongside lower comparison values for Vietnam and Brazil. Since the later-year entries are estimates, the comparisons are best understood as USDA series comparisons rather than final national accounts.
Output, consumption, and stocks
Production is only one part of the balance sheet. USDA separately reports consumption and residual use, as well as ending stocks. Consumption and residual is not production, and ending stocks measure inventory remaining at the end of a local marketing year.
China’s consumption and residual use was 150,293 thousand metric tons in 2020/21 and an estimated 148,115 thousand metric tons in 2023/24. India’s corresponding figures were 101,052 thousand metric tons in 2020/21 and an estimated 115,825 thousand metric tons in 2023/24. Both measures are on a milled basis and use local marketing years.
| Indicator | 2020/21 | 2023/24 | Geography |
|---|---|---|---|
| World ending rice stocks | 188,181 thousand metric tons | 179,822 thousand metric tons | World |
| China ending rice stocks | 116,500 thousand metric tons | 103,000 thousand metric tons | China |
| China consumption and residual use | 150,293 thousand metric tons | 148,115 thousand metric tons | China |
| India consumption and residual use | 101,052 thousand metric tons | 115,825 thousand metric tons | India |
Source: World Market and Trade: Grain—World Rice Production, Consumption, and Stocks. The 2023/24 figures are estimates; stocks are ending stocks, not annual production.
World ending rice stocks were estimated at 179,822 thousand metric tons in 2023/24, compared with observed ending stocks of 188,181 thousand metric tons in 2020/21. China’s estimated 2023/24 ending stocks were 103,000 thousand metric tons, compared with 116,500 thousand metric tons in 2020/21. These inventory figures cannot be substituted for consumption or output when evaluating supply conditions.
Harvested area and yield
Harvested area and yield help explain the physical basis of production, but they are separate indicators. Area is the land harvested, while yield is output per unit of harvested area. The June 2025 USDA outlook gives forward-looking country estimates and forecasts rather than a single globally harmonized observation.
For India, 2024/25 rice harvested area was forecast at a record 51.0 million hectares. Yield was forecast at 4.41 tons per hectare, reported as 2% above the prior year. Milled-rice production was forecast at 150,000 thousand metric tons, based on a revised government estimate. These figures come from the June 2025 outlook and preserve its forecast status.
Nigeria’s 2024/25 harvested area was estimated at 3.6 million hectares, up 100,000 hectares from a year earlier. Its rice yield was estimated at a record 2.54 tons per hectare, and milled-rice production was forecast at 5,765 thousand metric tons. The yield is a record estimate, not a finalized observation, and the production figure is a record forecast.
Australia shows a different area-and-yield pattern. Its 2024/25 harvested rice area was estimated at 44,000 hectares, 24% below the previous year. Yield was estimated at 10.86 tons per hectare, based on favorable conditions in southern New South Wales. The combination of lower area and high estimated yield is distinct from simply assuming that a smaller harvested area must produce a proportionally smaller output.
Source: Rice Outlook: June 2025. Area, yield, and production are not interchangeable measures; the outlook includes estimates, government advance estimates, and revisions.
Near-term production and trade outlook
The June 2025 USDA outlook forecast Australia’s 2024/25 milled-rice production at 344 thousand metric tons, 23% below the prior year. That forecast sits alongside the estimated 44,000 hectares of harvested area and 10.86 tons-per-hectare yield, and it is explicitly a forecast rather than a completed production report.
The same outlook projected global rice trade in calendar 2026 at a record 61.7 million tons on a milled basis. It projected India’s rice exports at 25.0 million tons in calendar 2025 and 25.0 million tons again in calendar 2026. Trade and exports are not production: they measure movement across borders, while production measures output.
The 2026 global rice-trade projection was reported as 375,000 tons above the prior forecast and 1% larger than a year earlier. Those are USDA forecast comparisons, not independently measured production changes. The outlook also said USDA raised both India’s 2025/26 and 2024/25 production forecasts by 3.0 million tons in the June 2025 outlook. That is a revision relative to the previous USDA forecast, not an independently measured production total.
Two additional yield comparisons show how outlook revisions can differ by country. Australia’s 2024/25 rice yield estimate was 1.5% higher than a year earlier, while Nigeria’s estimate was almost 3% above a year earlier. Both comparisons are from the USDA June 2025 outlook, and both yields remain estimated rather than finalized.
For readers comparing rice statistics, the practical rule is to keep three labels visible: the geography, the period definition, and the measurement type. A local marketing-year production estimate is different from a calendar-year trade forecast; milled rice is different from rough rice; and harvested area, yield, consumption, stocks, exports, and trade each answer a different question.